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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple script. It often serves as a form of apology. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the biggest resurgence wins the award. However, it sparks an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding excellent leadership or just the greatest upset.

Yet the current race is fundamentally unique. The pool of contenders is exceptionally strong. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with reigning division champions declining and recent strugglers rising in unison. During an ordinary year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a wild and entertaining year, he's competing with multiple other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot should look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper system, Williams has been given the opportunity to display his rare talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been capable to spin big plays from nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost each bet – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has worked. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the building with the level of hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme wizard but the type of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

During a typical season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But this isn't a typical year!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for sustained success. But Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has excelled at the leadership stuff, which was not a certainty following his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and experience, he bet on newbies. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. But he has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason collapse caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller could have derailed the season in October. Rather, it made it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed since that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just one spot ahead of peers.

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