Colombian President, Gustavo Petro, is undertaking a critical trip to Washington to confer with US President Donald Trump. This marks the first in-person meeting between the two figures following months of rising strains and sharp rhetoric.
Topics for Talks
The situation in Venezuela, drug trafficking, oil, security, and US strikes on suspected narco-boats are expected to be top on the list of topics when they gather at the White House on Tuesday.
A History of Tensions
Although the two men were cordial in a phone call after a January US military operation, Petro has subsequently said he believes there is a "genuine danger" of armed intervention targeting Colombia. Trump, in turn, has earlier commented that a such action in Colombia "sounds good".
The upcoming summit comes after months of the two leaders exchanging criticisms. Petro has repeatedly condemned repeated US attacks on suspected narco-vessels in the Caribbean and Pacific, as well as the US administration's border policies.
"He changed his attitude," the US President was quoted as saying ahead of the White House meeting.
Points of Contention
From Washington's perspective, Trump has charged Petro's administration of not taking sufficient action to stop the flow of narcotics toward the United States, and has pledged to extend military actions to terrestrial objectives throughout the area.
But, the hostility seemed to subside following a "cordial" telephone conversation between the two presidents, which a Colombian official later described as an complete reversal "from both sides".
Diplomatic Bridge
Per insiders, one man – US Senator Rand Paul – was pivotal in setting up the conversation. "I have faith in negotiation and I thought our relations were going in the wrong direction," the lawmaker reportedly. "And I'd like to see our relationship to improve."
Regional Stability and the Guerrilla Group
Prior to Tuesday's meeting, officials from Bogotá indicated that much of the discussion would focus on shared US and Colombian concerns over security in Venezuela, with which Colombia shares an extensive frontier.
Much of that border is controlled of the National Liberation Army. This Colombian guerrilla group, established in the 1960s, controls narco-trade, extortion, contraband, and illegal mining in border states and reportedly works with corrupt elements within the Caracas administration.
For Trump, tackling the threat of the ELN will be crucial to ensuring safety for US firms engaged in Venezuela's energy sector. Experts note that the ELN has the capacity to disrupt economic ambitions by targeting international businesses and employees, as it has previously attempted in Colombia.
Counter-Narcotics Cooperation
An equally pressing matter for the two leaders will be the struggle against cocaine trafficking from Colombia, the world's largest source of the narcotic. Earlier this year, Petro instituted a halt on information exchange with US authorities after comments from Washington.
The US has, in turn, officially listed Colombia as a country that has "not met its obligations" in combating the narcotics trade. It has also imposed restrictions on figures in Petro's government, including the president and his relatives.
"Combating the cocaine trade is impossible without Colombia," stated a regional security expert. "Any move to sever Colombian intelligence could also undermine all enforcement efforts."
Potential Outcomes
Despite several issues for cooperation, the potential for a confrontation exists. "The US President's stance can be volatile," commented a ex-official. "I suspect is that Petro will walk in with some offers to avert Trump's anger... But one never knows."
For the Colombian leader, even a difficult meeting could be beneficial. His presidential term ends soon, and the results of the talks could impact the political future of his preferred successor.
"To an extent, he's kind of in a win-win position," noted a Latin American studies professor. "If it goes well undermines criticism... If it doesn't, he's defending Colombian interests. He could turn that in his favour."
