Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. They composes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
